Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 Article
Author(s): Fereshtehnejad S.-M.,Leinsalu M.,Fowkes F.G.R.,Esteghamati A.,Boyers L.N.,Mock C.N.,Sahraian M.A.,Kokubo Y.,Hamavid H.,Mullany E.C.,Sahle B.W.,Templin T.,Jacobsen K.H.,Naghavi P.,Truelsen T.,Alasfoor D.,Stathopoulou V.K.,Undurraga E.A.,Murray C.J.L.,Ikeda N.,Weintraub R.G.,Moore A.R.,Cortinovis M.,Leasher J.L.,Jassal S.,Jayaraman S.P.,Kengne A.P.,Beardsley J.,Toyoshima H.,Richardson L.,Benzian H.,Khang Y.-H.,Villalpando S.,Abraham J.P.,Coates M.M.,Scarborough P.,Shangguan S.,Liu Y.,Alviz-Guzman N.,Abuabara K.E.,Criqui M.H.,Bhutta Z.A.,Gilmour S.,Bui L.N.,Perez-Padilla R.,Bin Abdulhak A.,Ärnlov J.,Soneji S.,Dherani M.,Juel K.,Mason-Jones A.J.,Atkinson C.,Tsala Dimbuene Z.,Shackelford K.,Nguyen N.T.T.,Robinson M.,Refaat A.,Soshnikov S.S.,Kumar R.B.,Gotay C.C.,Charlson F.C.,Nangia V.,London S.J.,Jonas J.B.,Newcomb P.A.,Huynh C.,Dicker D.,Cooper C.,Dargan P.I.,Wagner G.R.,Kinge J.M.,De La Vega S.F.,Barregard L.,Brainin M.,Lipshultz S.E.,Rojas-Rueda D.,Shinohara Y.,Heredia Pi I.B.,Moradi-Lakeh M.,Naldi L.,Ohno S.L.,Goenka S.,Hansen G.M.,Newman L.,Rahimi K.,Nisar M.I.,Eshrati B.,Mishra S.K.,Erskine H.E.,Swaroop M.,Skirbekk V.,Perez-Ruiz F.P.,Varakin Y.Y.,Glaser E.L.,Jensen P.N.,Pervaiz A.,Qato D.,Bensenor I.M.,Colquhoun S.M.,Colistro V.,Lee J.-T.,Kravchenko M.A.,Marape M.,Lan Q.,Feigin V.L.,McKee M.,Chowdhury R.,Mooney M.D.,Thorne-Lyman A.L.,Steiner C.,Ginawi I.A.M.,Wolock T.M.,Larson H.J.,Marcenes W.,Waller S.G.,Ricci S.,Banerjee A.,Gillum R.F.,Santos I.S.,Yang Y.C.,Montañez Hernandez J.C.,Paul V.K.,Pellegrini C.A.,Blyth F.M.,Lam H.,Talongwa R.T.,Werdecker A.,Machado V.M.P.,Kosen S.,Ngalesoni F.N.,Kumar K.,Piel F.B.,Liu S.,Del Pozo-Cruz B.,Abera S.F.,Asad M.M.,Thomas B.A.,Gankpé F.G.,Wong J.Q.,Nash D.,Khalifa S.E.A.H.,Roth G.A.,Sawhney M.,Topouzis F.,Abdel Aziz M.I.,Schneider I.J.C.,Mapoma C.C.,Mensah G.A.,Carabin H.,Murray J.,Akena D.,Pearce N.,De Veber G.A.,Mackay M.T.,Gugnani H.C.,Rabito F.,Mendoza W.,Shishani K.,Soljak M.,Lalloo R.,Yatsuya H.,Samonte G.M.J.,Chen H.,Zunt J.R.,Miller T.R.,Sampson U.,Pavlin B.,Wessells K.R.R.,Yun Jin K.,Plass D.,Richardus J.H.,Bekele T.,Christophi C.A.,Feigl A.B.,Kucuk Bicer B.,Agardh E.E.,Saylan M.,Shrime M.G.,Anderson B.O.,Tillmann T.,Brazinova A.,Karimkhani C.,Ukwaja K.N.,Abbasoglu Ozgoren A.,Mohammad K.A.,Husseini A.,Yip P.,Mustapha A.,De Lima G.M.F.,Basu S.,Dorsey E.R.,Vasconcelos A.M.N.,Hughes A.J.,Halasa Y.A.,Chen Y.,Alvarez E.,Thurston G.D.,Montico M.,Apfel H.,Sabin N.,Takahashi K.,Leung R.,Breitborde N.,Nelson R.G.,Norman R.E.,De Leo D.,Fleming T.D.,Rushton L.,Gibney K.B.,Quistberg D.A.,Wang Y.,Bertozzi-Villa A.,Kabagambe E.K.,Larsson A.,Abraham B.,Ademi Z.,Caso V.,Hoy D.G.,Alegretti M.A.,Kassebaum N.,Buckle G.C.,Che X.,Alhabib S.,Nguyen G.,Barber R.M.,Otayza M.L.K.,Phillips D.E.,Jiang G.,Stevens A.,Basulaiman M.O.,Abdalla S.,Wang X.,Roca A.,Sigfusdottir I.D.,Kivipelto M.,Raju M.,Bohensky M.A.,Benjet C.,Venketasubramanian N.,Barrero L.H.,Dansereau E.,Wang J.L.,Kaul A.,Moran A.E.,O'Donnell M.,Wenzhi W.,Hoek H.W.,Mangalam S.,Amare A.T.,Kawakami N.,Harewood H.,Vos T.,Violante F.S.,Westerman R.,Abubakar I.,Tleyjeh I.M.,Lawrynowicz A.E.B.,Geleijnse J.M.,Zeeb H.,Mozaffarian D.,Nasher J.,Lim S.S.,Beghi E.,Kulkarni C.,Naidoo K.S.,Bahit M.C.,Malekzadeh R.,Dandona L.,Rowley J.T.F.,Adou A.K.,Adelekan A.,Rakovac I.,Ellenbogen R.G.,Aboyans V.,Vlassov V.V.,Warouw T.S.,Pourmalek F.,Al-Shahi Salman R.,Keren A.,Cirillo M.,Sunguya B.F.,Khan E.A.,Neupane S.P.,Shiue I.,Gunnell D.,Ali R.,Yoon S.-J.,Amankwaa A.A.,Asghar R.J.,Hedayati M.T.,Tuzcu E.M.,Tavakkoli M.,Cohen A.,MacLachlan J.H.,Nyakarahuka L.,Salomon J.A.,Roberts D.A.,Sambandam S.,Masiye F.,Rodriguez A.,Room R.,Lucas R.M.,Sanabria J.R.,Lavados P.M.,Shaheen A.,Kinfu Y.,Hornberger J.C.,Gupta R.,Hoffman H.J.,Islami F.,Lofgren K.T.,Ortiz A.,Cárdenas R.,Lotufo P.A.,Aleman A.V.,Peresson S.C.,Quezada A.D.,Olusanya B.O.,Monasta L.,Des Jarlais D.C.,Cuevas-Nasu L.,Schwebel D.C.,Panniyammakal J.,Temesgen A.M.,Tenkorang E.Y.,Shahraz S.,Diaz-Ortega J.-L.,Simard E.P.,Tan F.,Hay R.J.,Marzan M.B.,Mukaigawara M.,Riccio P.M.,Ameli O.,Estep K.,Fahrion A.S.,Schöttker B.,Christensen H.,Allebeck P.,Woldeyohannes S.M.,Albittar M.,Phillips B.K.,Coppola L.M.,Poulton R.G.,Alla F.,Sliwa K.,Lind M.L.,Al Lami F.,Hafezi-Nejad N.,Barrientos-Gutierrez T.,Huang J.J.,Pereira D.M.,Lunevicius R.,Inoue M.,Mills E.J.,Bennett D.A.,Omer S.B.,Younis M.,Faraon E.J.A.,Logroscino G.,Sahathevan R.,Opio J.N.,Alemu Z.A.,Lansingh V.C.,Silva A.P.,Hamadeh R.R.,Balalla S.,Zou X.N.,Schmidt J.C.,Weichenthal S.,Xu G.,Mejia-Rodriguez F.,Straif K.,Li Y.,Greenwell K.F.,Sindi S.,Perico N.,Tonelli M.,Mueller U.O.,McKay A.C.,Forouzanfar M.H.,Brayne C.E.G.,Moffitt T.E.,Biryukov S.,Magis-Rodriguez C.,Hosgood H.D.,Badawi A.,Singh L.,Cavalleri F.,Borges G.,Jha V.,Kazanjan K.,Kim S.,So S.,Ermakov S.P.,Orisakwe O.E.,Hu G.,Blore J.D.,Ruhago G.M.,Argeseanu Cunningham S.,Elshrek Y.,Terkawi A.S.,Swaminathan S.,Arsic Arsenijevic V.S.,Sposato L.A.,Hotez P.J.,MacIntyre M.F.,Alfonso-Cristancho R.,Norheim O.F.,Franklin R.C.,Roberts B.,Kuate Defo B.,Driscoll T.R.,Coggeshall M.S.,Shakh-Nazarova M.,Kuipers E.J.,Søreide K.,Panelo C.I.,Tsilimbaris M.,Dellavalle R.P.,McLain A.,Chiang P.P.-C.,Amini H.,Vijayakumar L.,Edmond K.M.,Scott J.G.,Gaffikin L.,Harb H.L.,Knudsen A.K.,Chen J.S.,Liddell C.,Popova S.,Lortet-Tieulent J.,Mokdad A.H.,Graetz N.,Assadi R.,Iburg K.M.,Tirschwell D.L.,Fahimi S.,McGrath J.J.,Alsharif U.,Futran N.D.,Liang X.,Sepanlou S.G.,Hancock J.,Sreeramareddy C.T.,Naghavi M.,Van De Vijver S.,Moturi W.N.,Mhimbira F.A.,Bose D.,Melaku Y.A.,Brauer M.,Bourne R.R.,Roy N.,Carpenter D.O.,Mayosi B.M.,Schumacher A.E.,Abd-Allah F.,Antonio C.A.T.,Moschandreas J.,Zaki M.E.S.,Garcia A.C.,Lozano R.,Artaman A.,Norrving B.,Memish Z.A.,Traebert J.,Montine T.J.,Alcalá-Cerra G.,Gonzalez-Medina D.,Hagstromer M.,Weiderpass E.,Colomar M.,Abu-Raddad L.J.,Dandona R.,Wurtz B.,Carapetis J.,Shepard D.S.,Lopez A.D.,Chugh S.S.,Shibuya K.,Ammar W.,Patten S.B.,Basu A.,Li B.,Newton C.R.,Vavilala M.S.,Gosselin R.A.,Zhu S.,Karthikeyan G.,Dokova K.,Gomez Dantes H.,Wolfe C.D.A.,Dessalegn M.,Higashi H.,Huffman M.D.,Nand D.,Ortblad K.F.,Anwari P.,Chang J.-C.,Wright J.L.,Uchendu U.S.,Anderson H.R.,Giroud M.,Remuzzi G.,Sheikhbahaei S.,Ronfani L.,Marks G.B.,Innos K.,Tabb K.M.,Duber H.C.,Ohkubo T.,Prabhakaran D.,She J.,Rafay A.,Tanner M.,Zamakhshary M.F.,Saha S.,Sturua L.,Vollset S.E.,García-Guerra F.A.,Woolf A.D.,Levitz C.,Rahman S.U.R.,Lallukka T.,Lyons R.A.,Rothstein D.H.,Narayan K.M.V.,Trillini M.,Chuang T.-W.,Deribe K.,Fernandes J.G.,Kwan G.F.,Peterson C.B.,Poenaru D.,Steenland K.,Kotagal M.,Mori R.,Majdan M.,Kemp A.H.,Kan H.,Hijar M.,Margono C.,Nolte S.,Kereselidze M.,Wulf S.,Boufous S.,Hammami M.,Ding E.L.,Ribeiro A.L.,Hsairi M.,Satpathy M.,Gessner B.D.,Rothenbacher D.,Yonemoto N.,Barker-Collo S.L.,Heydarpour P.,Goto A.,Meltzer M.,Krueger H.,Vasankari T.J.,Sioson E.,Brown J.C.,Abu-Rmeileh N.M.E.,Heuton K.R.,Ebel B.E.,Brenner H.,Fürst T.,Thrift A.G.,Papachristou C.,Stein C.,Masci J.R.,Krishnaswami S.,Davis A.,Foigt N.,Dharmaratne S.D.,Williams T.N.,Burch M.,Stöckl H.,Whiteford H.A.,Kazi D.S.,Khan G.,Felicio M.M.,Pesudovs K.,Knibbs L.,Wang H.,Diaz-Torne C.,Mola G.L.,Mashal M.T.,Bhala N.,Mahdi A.A.,Naheed A.,Yu C.,Wilkinson J.D.,Crump J.A.,Achoki T.,Neuhouser M.,Paternina Caicedo A.J.,Petzold M.,Karam N.,Bakfalouni T.,Lai T.,Joseph J.,Bhalla A.,Te Ao B.,Saeedi M.Y.,Khader Y.S.,Tran B.X.,De La Cruz-Góngora V.,AlMazroa M.A.,Pandian J.D.,Teixeira C.M.,Matzopolous R.,Zhu J.,Stroumpoulis K.,Haro J.M.,Dayama A.,Hay S.I.,Havmoeller R.,Kyu H.,Farzadfar F.,Kim D.,Sykes B.L.,Hu H.,Foreman K.,Sandar L.,Salvo D.,Zonies D.,Gambashidze K.,Catalá-López F.,Coffeng L.E.,Beyene T.J.,Mazorodze T.T.,Kulkarni V.S.,Haagsma J.,Wang L.,Zhao Y.,Campos Nonato I.R.,Ubeda C.,Rana S.M.,Bikbov B.,Bell M.L.,Trujillo U.,Monis J.D.L.C.,Patton G.C.,Balakrishnan K.,Meretoja A.,Van Gool C.H.,Polinder S.,Fay D.F.J.,Courville K.,Ma S.,Cooper L.T.,Adofo K.,Silberberg D.H.,Da Costa Leite I.,Mohamed Ibrahim N.,Duan L.,Ng M.,Stanaway J.D.,Castañeda-Orjuela C.A.,Moyer M.L.,Durrani A.M.,Ali M.K.,Ismayilova S.,Karch A.,Fra Paleo U.,Shivakoti R.,Servan-Mori E.E.,Hankey G.J.,Zhou M.,Tanne D.,Barquera S.,Atkins L.S.,Guinovart C.,Iannarone M.,Zhang Y.,Kieling C.,Brugha T.S.,Mehndiratta M.M.,Degenhardt L.,Cowie B.C.,Towbin J.A.,Adsuar J.C.,Zheng Y.,Bukhman G.,Vallely A.J.,Nejjari C.,Gutiérrez R.A.,Yano Y.,Chimed-Ochir O.,Briggs A.D.M.,Bedi N.,Lloyd B.K.,Chen Z.,Phillips M.R.,Rahimi-Movaghar V.,Gouda H.N.,Lakshmana Balaji A.,Hossain M.,Hagan H.,Al Khabouri M.J.,Leigh J.,Pain A.W.,Dabhadkar K.C.,Meaney P.A.,Odell S.,Gona P.,Castro R.E.,Ferrari A.J.,Misganaw A.,Idrisov B.T.,Singh J.A.,Jiang Y.
The Lancet Volume 385, Issue 9963, 2015 , Pages 117-171
DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61682-2

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0-65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0-71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8-48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6-56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
Keywords
heart atrium fibrillation Article life table Kyrgyzstan Serbia Hungary adult Child, Preschool congenital syphilis Hodgkin disease Mauritania Honduras United Arab Emirates Bolivia bacterial arthritis Russian Federation Tajikistan Philippines child Tonga Infant, Newborn tetanus male rheumatic heart disease Mongolia Sex Distribution ICD-9 jaundice very elderly Alzheimer disease groups by age hemoglobinopathy Azerbaijan unintentional suffocation natural disaster Afghanistan Peru pneumonia Rotavirus infection Rotavirus infant congenital malformation China Tanzania Taiwan Gambia scleroderma Slovakia chronic obstructive lung disease Cuba drowning autopsy liver cirrhosis nutritional disorder uterine cervix cancer cause of death ensemble modelling pancreas cancer Bahamas Viet Nam Mauritius Slovenia Mortality Eritrea Grenada stomach cancer Venezuela ischemic heart disease diarrhea malaria Papua New Guinea factual database Cote d'Ivoire sex ratio Human immunodeficiency virus infection Life Expectancy Paraguay Congo Israel Uganda Guinea-Bissau diabetes mellitus El Salvador Norway musculoskeletal disease Botswana Pakistan pertussis Bangladesh chronic kidney disease Haemophilus influenzae type b Suriname Equatorial Guinea young adult Aged Cambodia Ethiopia premature labor Colombia cryptosporidiosis chronic osteomyelitis cardiovascular disease South Korea Armenia Oman history Indonesia Samoa Ecuador statistical model Humans Kenya algorithm tuberculosis priority journal Child Cause of Death foreign body Costa Rica African trypanosomiasis Turkmenistan respiratory syncytial virus infection female Comoros brain disease lower respiratory tract infection Mali violence Parkinson disease information processing Latvia Male Cape Verde Somalia appendicitis health colorectal cancer North Korea Rwanda meningitis Uzbekistan hepatitis C maternal mortality India paratyphoid fever Global Health Thailand disease surveillance life expectancy typhoid fever peptic ulcer Albania newborn suffocation Argentina cerebrovascular accident Laos Canada Adult Myanmar Ukraine statistics and numerical data Singapore Jamaica peripheral vascular disease United Kingdom Seychelles Saint Vincent and the Grenadines adolescent cancer incidence Sri Lanka Japan United States Young Adult Middle Aged trends standards Nigeria Bahrain Aged, 80 and over Bulgaria shigellosis breast cancer automutilation war preschool child Poland pulmonary aspiration aged Sudan Romania Finland ICD-10 Adolescent schizophrenia middle aged perinatal asphyxia Guyana Africa south of the Sahara visceral leishmaniasis Haiti alcohol use disorder Child Mortality sepsis Madagascar Clostridium infection lung cancer Guatemala mortality cause of death newborn disease Life Tables Croatia Female childhood mortality Angola human Sierra Leone Brazil measles newborn jaundice Belize Kazakhstan Malaysia Mozambique yellow fever Barbados Databases, Factual liver cancer Swaziland systematic review Yemen Mexico lupus erythematosus Montenegro (republic) Cameroon Streptococcus pneumoniae Models, Statistical hemolytic anemia Trinidad and Tobago Infant Nicaragua cholera Gabon mesothelioma nutritional deficiency neoplasm

در صورتی که تاکنون مقاله‌ای در اسکوپوس یا وب آو ساینس داشته‌اید ابتدا پروفایل خود را در سای اکسپلور بیابید و ادعای پروفایل نمایید.

در سای اکسپلور فاقد پروفایل می باشم.